The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has just released its third and final estimate of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2013.
GDP growth slowed to 2.6% at an annualized pace in Q4 from 4.1% in Q3. Personal consumption growth accelerated to 3.3% annualized from 2.0%.
Previously, the BEA estimated that GDP and personal consumption rose only 2.4% and 2.6% annualized, respectively, in Q4. The consensus forecasts of market economists published after the previous BEA estimate called for GDP growth and personal consumption growth of 2.7% annualized.
The GDP price index rose 1.6% at an annualized pace and the price index of core personal consumption expenditures rose 1.3% annualized, both in line with previous BEA estimates and consensus forecasts.
Below is a summary of the data from the BEA release:
Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labour and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.1 per cent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.4 per cent. With this third estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains largely the same; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was larger than previously estimated, while private investment in inventories and in intellectual property products were smaller than previously estimated (see “Revisions” on page 3).
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected a downturn in private inventory investment, a larger decrease in federal government spending, a downturn in residential fixed investment, and a deceleration in state and local government spending that were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and in exports, a deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment.
The table below shows a complete breakdown of annualized growth rates in each component of GDP.
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