The second estimate on fourth quarter GDP is set for release at 8:30 am ET.
Expectations are for this revision to show the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2% in the last quarter of 2014, down from the first estimate showing growth of 2.6%.
In a note to clients on Thursday, Deutsche Bank economist Joe LaVorgna wrote that this downtick is likely based on slightly lower net exports and significantly less inventory accumulation that what was first reported.
Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro expects growth will be revised down to 2.1%, and wrote in a note that, “In the wake of the third quarter’s 5.0% surge in GDP, we can’t be too despondent about the fourth quarter slowdown, but it certainly will not look good, especially with the first quarter shaping up to be unspectacular too.”
Shepherdson added that, “The extended spell of severe cold and extreme snowfalls across parts of the country is constraining growth right now and, while we don’t expect a repeat of the 2.1% contraction in the economy seen in the first quarter of last year, our hopes of a 3%-plus expansion are fading.”
We’ll be back with the live numbers when they hit.
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