A quick heads up. Q4 GDP is released today at 8:30 AM ET. The official estimates are for growth of 3.7%, which is hotter than the 2.6% Q3 number.
Deutsche Bank — which is calling for 3.5% growth — breaks down a few of the numbers:
Spending on nondurable goods is expected to be up 4.0%, while spending on services should continue to lag, rising just 1.9% in the quarter. While a 4.5% gain in consumption would be the largest since Q1 2006 (+4.5%), we do not believe our forecast is aggressive since the level of real November consumer spending is already up 4.4% at an annualized rate relative to Q3. Another area of strength will likely be equipment and software spending, also known as capex. We are anticipating a record fifth consecutive double-digit gain in capex (+10.0%).
A lot is riding on this number, especially given the weak-ish labour numbers, and the surprise GDP contraction in the UK earlier this week.
Obviously we shall have full coverage.
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