The Wall Street Journal rounded-up the 2008 and 2009 ad forecasts executives will present at the UBS Global Media and Communications Conference in New York today.
They vary between sobering, depressing and morbid. Quoted from the WSJ:
- Publicis Groupe media agency ZenithOptimedia expects U.S. ad spending to drop 6.2% in 2009 to $161.8 billion.
- WPP’s agency GroupM sees a decline of 3% to $157 billion.
- Zenith says the current ad spending downturn started in the third quarter and has accelerated through the end of the year, with U.S. ad spending down 3.8% in 2008 to $172.5 billion. Group M is predicting that U.S. ad spending increased 0.3% this year to $162 billion.
- Online ad spending is expected to increase 5% in 2009, down from 16% growth in 2008, according to GroupM. [We figure this number must include search as well as display, which will probably shrink next year.]
- Fitch Ratings cautioned that U.S. ad spending next year would drop between 6% and 9%, in line with the steep downturn experienced in 2001 following the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
- UBS is forecasting that U.S. ad spending will fall 6% in 2009 but doesn’t anticipate the ad spending decline will be as steep as in 2001.
The always chipper Peter Kafka tacks on some gloom here.