The NAB’s latest residential property survey is out, and includes an update on which Australian suburbs are set to outperform over the next 12 months.
The quarterly survey of around 300 property professionals for Q4 2018 shows housing sentiment across Australia’s capital cities held steady at a reading of +20 — above the long-term average of +14.
But in the wake of the recent Sydney-led slowdown in the housing market, sentiment declined in NSW and Victoria. Those falls were offset by a sharp increase in the outlook for SA/NT, while WA also improved.
Within the headline numbers, the property experts surveyed also outlined which suburbs they think are more likely to enjoy above-average growth:
While that may be cause for optimism for homeowners in those areas, the NAB’s forecasts for broader price growth over the next two years were notably subdued.
“The degree of moderation has been ramped up considerably – mainly driven by revisions to Sydney prices, where recent price trends have been most concerning and prudential measures are likely to have the biggest impact,” said NAB’s chief economist Alan Oster.
“House prices are forecast to increase by only 0.7% in 2018 (previously 3.4%), with growth remaining subdued at 0.8% in 2019.”
The revised forecast is more negative than NAB’s two-year outlook in the September quarter, which predicted house-price growth of 3.4% and 2.5% in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
And the outlook for apartments is even less rosy:
“The apartment market is expected to under-perform, reflecting large additions to the apartment stock and a soft outlook for foreign demand. Unit prices are forecast to fall 0.9% in 2018 (previously +0.5%), and decline another 1.8% in 2019,” Oster said.
“By capital city, house price growth is forecast to be solid in Melbourne and Hobart, followed by Brisbane and Adelaide.”
“Perth is expected to stabilise, marking the beginning of a gradual turnaround for the market, while we expect to see a fall in Sydney prices for the first time since 2011,” said Oster.