The grim forecast has contributed to the collapse of muni bonds (though there are other factors).
The best (darkly humorous) line is this:
Projections Likely Understate the State’s Fiscal Woes. We believe that our projections probably understate the magnitude of the state’s fiscal problems during the forecast period. First, our forecast generally assumes no cost‐of‐living adjust‐ ments or inflationary increases in departmental budgets. Second, by including only current‐law expenditures, our forecast does not include funding to address a number of large liabilities that pose a risk to future state finances, as discussed below.
So as bad as the outlook is, it’s actually optimistic.
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