Photo: US Navy
Last week was incredibly volatile for the market, as the news flow was massive in the US, Europe, and China.This week should be another biggie, just based on the economic data on tap.
Each day there will be big earth movers coming.
- ISM manufacturing
- Construction spending
- Vehicle sales
- Factory orders
- Chain store sales
- Jobs week begins with the ADP report
- Also: ISM non-manufacturing
- Initial claims
- THE JOBS REPORT!!!
- Consumer credit
Here’s the outlook on the jobs report from Nomura:
Employment report: We are forecasting an increase in total nonfarm payrolls in September of 60k, with private payrolls increasing 80k and manufacturing payrolls rising by 5k. Assuming no revisions to past data, a data release in line with our forecast would lead to a 3-month moving average for job creation of just 48k in September, sharply slower compared with a high for 2011 of 215k in April, and further ruffling the feathers of the doves on the FOMC that would like to provide more stimulus for the labour market. The economic outlook remained “unusually uncertain” in September, still fuel led by fears of European contagion and stock market volatility. The Verizon strike of 45k workers, which negatively impacted August payrolls, should provide a boost to September payrolls of similar magnitude. Elsewhere, we believe the average work week ticked back up to 34.3 hours and average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% following a decline of 0.1% in August. We also forecast that the unemployment rate held steady at 9.1%.
Meanwhile, expect a ton of news from Europe, the US (watch the banks, especially in the wake of California’s decision to drop out of the foreclosure-gate settlements, and the newfound concerns about Morgan Stanley) and of course any drips and drabs out of China.