Over the last month of the presidential campaign, there have been continued surprises (Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump), the relatively expected (Hillary Clinton) and the disappointing (Chris Christie, Rick Perry, and Rand Paul).
With less than 450 days until the 2016 election, here’s another look at who has the best chance of making it to the White House to succeed President Barack Obama.
Our rankings are based on the Real Clear Politics averages of national polls and those in New Hampshire and Iowa. We also factor in candidates’ fundraising numbers released last month and their momentum (or lack thereof) over the past few weeks, especially after the first Republican presidential debate earlier this month.
Here’s a look at where all the candidates stand.
Jindal was not too long ago one of the GOP's rising stars. But his stock both nationally and in his home state of Louisiana has plummeted over the past few years, as his state has fallen into financial disarray.
The result is what's showing up in polls: He has yet to be able to break out of the bottom of the GOP pack.
Jindal and allied groups did raise $US9 million last quarter, but he missed out on the first prime-time debate, and he looks extremely unlikely to make the next main debate stage in September.
National polling average among Republican voters: 0.7% (14th)
Iowa: 1.7% (12th)
New Hampshire: 1.8% (12th)
Last month: 18
One of the biggest risers in this month's power rankings is Carson, who perhaps benefited most from the first Republican debate. He saw a 5-point jump in a post-debate Fox News poll, after giving perhaps the strongest closing statement of the debate.
Carson is a Washington outsider who has truly shown that he can appeal to a broader electorate as a Washington outsider -- though almost no one inside the Beltway still would believe he's a serious contender for the nomination. It's that same outsider mentality that has made Trump so appealing to many Republican voters.
Carson has also shown some fundraising prowess -- he and allied groups raised $US8.3 million in the second quarter, behind the combined totals of just six other GOP candidates.
National polling average among Republican voters: 9.7% (3rd)
Iowa: 11.7% (2nd)
New Hampshire: 5.5% (7th)
Last month: 7
Walker remains one of the three candidates -- along with Rubio and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) -- that Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton's campaign is constantly savaging in public, suggesting she views him as a credible general-election matchup.
But the last month has done anything but cement Walker's status as a top-tier candidate.
He has lost momentum -- and supporters -- from Donald Trump and Carson, and he's flailing in recent polling in Iowa, the first-voting state that is becoming increasingly important to his path to the nomination. Judging by recent polling, Walker's debate performance also didn't win him any new supporters.
Still, the presidential campaign is a marathon, not a sprint. And Walker has the monetary backing and credentials to remain in the race for a long time.
National polling average among Republican voters: 7.7% (4th)
Iowa: 11% (3rd)
New Hampshire: 7.5% (4th)
Last month: 3
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