The 20 Countries With The Highest Probability Of Default

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Photo: Flickr / Darin House

As the economic crisis in Europe continues to flare up, investors holding sovereign debt have had to pay substantially higher rates to insure themselves from default via Credit Default Swaps.Business Insider compiled data on some 59 countries where investors can buy protection.

The results: issuers of credit default swaps don’t see the U.S., Germany or Norway defaulting anytime soon.

What follows is a look at the cost to insure $10,000 of 10-year sovereign debt per year.

#20: Iceland, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 324.39 bps

Year-to-Date Change: -1.1 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 328.04 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#19: Lithuania, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 326.26 bps

Year-to-Date Change: -15.9 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 387.79 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#18: Bulgaria, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 393.15 bps

Year-to-Date Change: -10.4 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 438.92 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#17: Vietnam, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 393.18 bps

Year-to-Date Change: -13.1 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 452.38 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#16: Bahrain, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 396.22 bps

Year-to-Date Change: -6.4 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 423.25 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#15: Dubai, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 430.87 bps

Year-to-Date Change: -9.9 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 478.45 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#14: Romania, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 467.70 bps

Year-to-Date Change: -0.2 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 468.61 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#13: Lebanon, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 518.30 bps

Year-to-Date Change: +1.3 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 511.60 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#12: Italy, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 522.89 bps

Year-to-Date Change: +5.4 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 496.15 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#11: Spain, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 538.00 bps

Year-to-Date Change: +48.2 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 362.94 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#10: Croatia, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 563.95 bps

Year-to-Date Change: -1.9 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 574.59 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#9: Hungary, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 608.61 bps

Year-to-Date Change: -5.1 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 641.51 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#8: Ireland, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 656.23 bps

Year-to-Date Change: +12.1 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 585.20 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#7: Egypt, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 665.35 bps

Year-to-Date Change: +0.4 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 662.85 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#6: Venezuela, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 829.20 bps

Year-to-Date Change: -8.2 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 902.79 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#5: Portugal, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 835.72 bps

Year-to-Date Change: -4.1 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 871.82 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#4: Ukraine, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 884.81 bps

Year-to-Date Change: +5.7 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 884.81 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#3: Cyprus, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 906.16 bps

Year-to-Date Change: N/A

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): N/A

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#2: Argentina, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 1,183.98 bps

Year-to-Date Change: +29.6 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 913.36 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

#1: Greece, Cost To Insure $10,000 Sovereign Debt: 7,015.10 bps

Year-to-Date Change: -12.4 per cent

10-Year CDS Price (1/1/2012): 8,009.18 bps

Source: Bloomberg CDS Intraday London

Here's a full breakdown of CDS rates

The 2012 Misery Index

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