Prediction Market Intrade Nails Iowa: Now Says Recession, SIRI/XMSR

Prediction Markets by Intrade

Let’s hear it for the wisdom of the crowd. Intrade’s political futures market got Iowa right (via Jupiter’s Michael Gartenberg).

The overall Intrade favourites are still Hillary and McCain, but we would not be surprised to see Hillary’s status, at least, soon change.

Other current Intrade bets:

  • 50/50 chance SIRI/XMSR merger closes by March
  • 70% chance it closes by June
  • 53% chance the US economy goes into recession in 2008.

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