This call isn’t too hard to make: Record political spending is going to make 2008 a record advertising year for local television. BIA Financial expects local TV advertising to jump 11% in 2008, marking a 10-year high in revenue growth. Local TV grew 1% to $22 billion in 2007.
The mixed results from Iowa and New Hampshire means that the election 2008 is wide open, which gives all the campaigns incentive to spend freely in major media markets before the Feb. 5 “Super Tuesday” primaries. And the really big spending kicks in the second half of the year as the presidential nominees go after each other. Tis is one of the reasons both CBS CEO Les Moonves and News Corp. president Peter Chernin say they’re seeing no ad recession on the local level. But as we’ve noted, we still expect one to an ad turndown to hit soon.
The big picture: TV advertising looks increasing yoked to two big drivers: Election and the Olympics. When either one of those hits, ads go up, when they’re not…. BIA expects a modest 3% drop in spending in 2009, followed by a 8% bump in 2010 when the mid-term elections kick in. The last 10 years and the next four, according to BIA:
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