There are less than three weeks until Britain votes on whether it should remain in the European Union and one side of the debate is heading into the June 23 referendum with much more confidence than the other.
British research company Populus has released data which shows that the overwhelming majority of people who intend to vote Remain expect to be on the winning side (85%).
Brexiteers are nowhere near as optimistic. In fact, the majority of respondents who plan to vote for a Brexit don’t believe that it’s going to happen.
As the chart below illustrates, the majority of Leave-ers (48%) expect to be on the losing side when the result is announced in the early hours of Friday 24 June.
This data tells us that even Brits who want a Brexit are starting to subscribe to the belief held by bookmakers and polling analysts that Remain is the more likely outcome.
Ladbrokes is currently offering odds of 5/2 for a Brexit (28%) while Number Cruncher Politics’ live referendum forecast is indicating that the probability of Britain voting to leave is just 22%.
The odds of a Brexit look slim despite a stunning ICM opinion poll published earlier this week that showed a 14-point swing in favour of Leave. However,
However, as Business Insider explained, this poll was unlikely to have a major effect on forecasts as the trend it showed needs to be sustained in future surveys to be deemed significant.
Interestingly, undecided respondents were evenly split on what they thought the outcome of the referendum would be. The fact these voters believe that the referendum is all to play for could serve as an extra incentive for them to vote on June 23.
Populus’ data also shows that the vast majority of MPs that the research firm interviewed believed that Britain will choose to stay in the 28-nation bloc.
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