Does The Population And Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales Chart Demolish The Bullish Argument?

Doug Short takes us to task for pointing out the v-shaped recovery in retail, arguing that the “bullish babble” is undermined by an inflation and population-adjusted retail sales chart that shows we’re still nowhere near our old highs.


Alright, so a few things…

First, as we noted, if you strip out energy — which was around $150 during the last peak — the chart looks a lot better.

But even beyond that, you’re still looking at the same shares: a “V.” In otherwords, even adjusting for inflation or population growth doesn’t change the robust upward momentum of retail sales. Sure, we’re not at the old highs yet, which is understandable, but the shape remains the same.

When it starts to taper off and go sideways, then that would be a reason to worry.

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