The 'Yes' Vote Is Gaining Clear Momentum In Scotland, But It Still Isn't Over The Hump

ScotlandREUTERS/Cathal McNaughtonA ‘No’ campaign placard and Union flag are seen outside a cottage on the Isle of North Uist, in the Outer Hebrides of Scotland September 15, 2014.

Two new polls released Tuesday show the “no” vote holding steady, just two days ahead of a vote on Scotland’s possible independence from the United Kingdom.

In both polls — one from Opinium and another from ICM — the 52% of respondents said they would vote “no” on the referendum. 48% would vote in favour of Scottish independence.

The 52/48 split is the same registered in a YouGov poll late last week. In all three of the polls, it’s clear that the “yes” vote has gained momentum ahead of Scotland’s date with destiny — but the momentum has failed to yield a majority for supporters of independence.

According to the Opinium poll, among voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote, 45% say they would cast their ballot in favour of splitting off from the UK, while 49% would choose to remain in the union.

Still, the “yes” vote has picked up clear steam over the past month. In ICM’s August survey on the referendum, published in The Scotsman, the “yes” vote was at 45% and the “no” vote stood at 55%. Both positions have shifted 3 points in the opposite direction.

A vote for independence could cause massive ramifications throughout Europe, and it would lead to a host of immediate questions for Scotland: Would it be able to still use the British pound, which fell to its lowest level in 10 months on news of the polls? Would it be able to stay a member of NATO? And would it be able to gain re-entry into the E.U.?

A “yes” vote would also likely embolden other secessionist movements throughout Europe — what geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, called the “contagion” effect.

Despite tightening polls over the last month, most analysts still expect Scots to vote “no” on the referendum.

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