Polls show key Republicans could get whacked by the GOP's massive tax bill

Zach Gibson/Getty ImagesPaul Ryan.
  • Polling from six House swing districts found that the Republican tax bill is fairly unpopular with voters.
  • The polls found that Republican incumbents could be dragged down by the bill.
  • The GOP-held districts included in the polling were located in Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, Maine, New York, and California.

Surveys commissioned by the liberal “Not One Penny” coalition against the GOP tax reform plan found several Republicans crucial to the House majority could be imperiled by their votes to pass the tax legislation.

The polls, conducted by the left-leaning Public Policy Polling, found that six swing-district Republicans would lose reelection in 2018 to generic Democratic candidates in the aftermath of their votes. The polls came as the Senate passed its version of the tax reform bill in the early hours of Saturday morning.

The polls found that the opposition to the tax bill was stronger in each of the six districts than was support for it.

The districts and congressmen examined included:

All six voted for the House version of the legislation.

“Republicans rammed this legislation through Congress over the objections of their constituents,” Not One Penny spokesperson Tim Hogan said in a statement. “Voters understand that this bill is a taxpayer funded giveaway to millionaires, billionaires and corporations, and they will punish their representatives for supporting legislation that harms the middle class.”

In each district, at least 58% of respondents said they felt the plan benefits the wealthiest Americans more than the middle class. Less than 34% of respondents in each district felt it would help the middle class more.

In the case of each member of Congress, at least 44% of respondents said their representative’s vote in favour of the House tax plan made it less likely they would vote for the lawmaker in 2018. In five of the six districts, that number was in excess of 50%.

“Not One Penny” has already started targeting five of the six incumbents with an ad blitz. The sixth, Knight, will soon face an ad campaign from the group in his district.

Republicans hold a 240-to-194 majority in the House, meaning they can lose up to 22 seats in 2018 while maintaining their hold on the body. After passing the Senate, the tax bill is now expected to move forward to a conference committee between both the House and Senate.

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