A new Electoral College projection Wednesday from Morning Consult found that Hillary Clinton would secure massive victories in the general election against both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, the two most likely Republican presidential nominees.
But the analysis also showed that Clinton, the former secretary of state and Democratic frontrunner, would suffer a defeat at the hands of John Kasich, the Ohio governor.
The study, which surveyed more than 44,000 registered voters across all 50 states, showed that Clinton would have the advantage in nearly every Midwestern swing state against Trump, the GOP frontrunner, and Cruz, the Texas senator nipping at his heels.
However, the analysis suggested that Kasich has the potential to flip the script in those states. The study showed Kasich holding leads in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, all states that his fellow remaining Republicans were projected to lose at this point.
The map was nearly identical for both Trump and Cruz, with Trump picking up an additional four votes for winning Maine. (However, Maine has voted reliably for Democratic candidates in every presidential election since 1988.)
Morning Consult, a polling, consulting, and technology firm, surveyed the more than 44,000 voters in all 50 states over a four-month period. The company combined those results with other factors like voter demographics and economic data to forecast an overall outcome in each state.
Clinton would edge out Trump and Cruz by more than 100 electoral votes, the analysis found. A candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Of note, roughly 18% of total respondents were still undecided.
Here’s a look at the Trump-Clinton matchup at this point:
Nine states, which will likely be among the most hotly contested in the potential Trump-Clinton matchup, are currently within the margin of error — Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, Indiana, and Maine.
Here’s Clinton vs. Cruz:
Cruz’s map against Clinton sets up in a near-identical way to Trump’s, but the margins within several states are vastly different.
And here’s Clinton vs. Kasich:
Kasich’s theoretical map would be a dream GOP scenario, with nearly every swing state going in favour of the Ohio governor.