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When Reuters polled economists about a Spanish sovereign bailout in April, only about a quarter of them expected it to happen.Their most recent survey found that 35 out 59 analysts think it is likely or very likely that external help will be required for the state to keep funding itself.
This comes directly on the heels of Spain’s request for a 100 billion euro bailout, which has failed to reassure markets.
If Spain’s 10 year borrowing costs rise much further, the country will find it difficult to sustain itself without the sort of sovereign bailout we’ve already seen in Greece and Portugal.
Here are some other highlights from Reuters polls:
- 37 out of 59 analysts expect the Eurozone to exist in its current form a year from now.
- That number reflects some regional bias; only 5 of 25 Eurozone based analysts don’t expect survival, compared to about half of those from elsewhere.
- Three quarters of those surveyed see Spain’s bank bailout as unable to shore up Europe’s financial system.
- A different poll of economists found that 40 per cent expect the ECB to provide another round of cheap loans to the banking sector some time this year.