A new Politico-George Washington University Battleground poll out today gives President Barack Obama a 1-point lead. But one-half of the tandem conducting the poll is predicting that the election will produce a landslide victory for his Republican challenger Mitt Romney. In a memo along with the poll, The Tarrance Group’s Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber write that Romney has more significant advantages than the poll’s toplines suggest. Goeas and Nienaber project that Romney will win the popular vote handily — 52 per cent to 47 per cent. They make no mention of an Electoral College projection.
Here are the factors Goeas and Nienaber highlight in their memo:
- Among early voters and those who say they are “extremely likely” to vote, Romney has a 5-point, 51-46 advantage.
- Among those who say “pocketbook issues” are their top concern in the election — which amount to seven in 10 voters — Romney leads 56 to 41 per cent.
- They count Obama’s supporters — typically “urban,” “Hispanic,” those with less than a high-school education and low-income voters — as less likely to vote. Obama has a majority of support (59 per cent) of people who say they are “very likely” to vote, but Goeas and Nienaber paint this as much less reliable than “extremely likely.”
“While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” Goeas and Nienaber write.
The good news for Obama in the poll, however, is that he has made fairly significant gains from a week ago. He swung the race 3 points — from down 2 points to up 1. He also leads on the issues of handling taxes, foreign policy, Medicare, “standing up for the middle class” and “being a strong leader.” His approval rating also hit the important 50-per cent mark.
Business Insider Emails & Alerts
Site highlights each day to your inbox.