There’s just over six weeks until Britons vote on whether the country should leave the European Union. Last month, the campaign for Britain to remain appeared to be pulling away. However, the most recent Poll of Polls from non-partisan group What UK Thinks, showed that the Brexit campaign has steadily made up ground over the past two weeks.
In fact, the two campaigns are neck and neck: 50/50.
The latest survey is an average taken across six opinion polls released between the April 25 and May 3. The graph below illustrates how the gulf between the two campaigns has narrowed since mid-April, to the point where there is virtually nothing to choose between them with June 23 fast approaching.
The last What UK Thinks poll, published on April 18, said Remain had an eight point lead over Leave (54 > 46) — this means that the Brexit campaign made up eight points on Remain in just two weeks. This is despite a high-profile intervention from US President Barack Obama — who put forward a strong case for Britain remaining in the 28-nation bloc — and warnings that a Brexit could leave each household up to £4,300 worse off.
Yet, the results of the latest Poll of Polls shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise. Research published by Credit Suisse last week said that when you look at the overall picture of EU referendum polls, rather than individual surveys, a certain trend becomes clear: support for a Brexit is growing.
This graph shows, for example, how over the course of 12 months, the Remain campaign has gone from enjoying a commanding lead across the polls, to facing the very real possibility of Britain voting to leave the EU next month.
Even when polls published in the recent past said that Leave was trailing, the same polls also highlighted high numbers of undecided voters who were still up for grabs. For example, an ORB survey released last month showed that over a fifth of respondents said they were undecided or likely to change their minds about the EU referendum.
Basically, what recent data tells us is that this referendum is absolutely all to play for. After President Obama’s London visit, some people were pretty much writing off Leave’s chances all together. Yet, with just over six weeks to go, the campaign for a Brexit is probably the healthiest its been since campaigning got underway.
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