POLL: The key reason Brexit will win

A new poll has given those pushing for Britain to leave the EU a seven-point lead over the Remain campaign. The ORB poll for The Telegraph puts support for Leave at 52% and Remain at 45% — with the remaining 3% undecided.

The key reason for Leave’s lead over Remain is voter motivation.

At first glance the information seems surprising because most EU referendum polls have shown support for both sides of the debate to be pretty evenly split. And sure enough, when ORB asked people how they would vote if the referendum was the next day, the results were much closer, with Leave on 49% and Remain on 47%.

What ORB did next will really worry Leave campaigners — they asked people how likely they were to vote. Only 72% of people who said they planned to vote to stay in the EU said they were certain they will vote. In comparison 79% of Leave voters said they were certain they would go to the polling booth.

Once this discrepancy in voting intention is taken into account, ORB calculates a lead of 7% for Leave.

There are exactly 100 days to go until the June 23 referendum and there’s one more key piece of data in the ORB poll that shows how the Remain campaign could be in real trouble — 76% of people who said they will vote to Remain believe Britain will stay in the EU. While only 50% of Leave voters believe their campaign is going to win.

Put simply, Leave voters are more motivated to vote because they are more likely to believe their vote will matter. The Remain campaign has 100 days to convince supporters their votes are essential.

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