People Are Flipping Out Over Politico's Story About Nate Silver

nate silver

Photo: Courtesy of The Daily Show

Many left-leaning pundits on Twitter are collectively freaking out this afternoon because of Dylan Byers’ piece in Politico on Nate Silver, which questions if the New York Times’ stat guru could be a “one-term celebrity” if President Barack Obama loses the election.Byers’ piece raises the question of whether Silver will be a one-term wonder, considering that Silver’s electoral forecast model still gives Obama a 74 per cent chance of winning — even as the race has tightened considerably in the past month. 

But tension appears to have boiled over after this Josh Jordan piece in The National Review last week, which prompted a scathing response from The New York Times’ Paul Krugman

Here’s Silver’s not-so-subtle response on Twitter:

Nate Silver Twitter

Photo: Twitter/@fivethirtyeight

And here’s a sampling of the general Twitter reaction:

Nate Silver

Photo: Twitter/@ObsoleteDogma

Nate Silver

Photo: Twitter/@ezraklein

Nate Silver

Photo: Twitter/@drgrist

It’s worth noting this Silver quote from Byers’ piece. It explains how his model works based on state-by-state polling and how it applies to Obama’s Electoral College advantage, which we’ve chronicled before:

“If the Giants lead the Redskins 24-21 in the fourth quarter, it’s a close game that either team could win. But it’s also not a “toss-up”: The Giants are favoured. It’s the same principle here: Obama is ahead in the polling averages in states like Ohio that would suffice for him to win the Electoral College. Hence, he’s the favourite,” Silver said.

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