The political futures traders on InTrade are rushing toward Romney, predicting that he’ll win the Iowa Caucuses tonight and the Republican nomination. Shares of a Romney win took a dip over New Year’s Day as the Santorum surge was confirmed, but they’ve spiked right back up today.
As we’ve pointed out before, InTrade follows conventional wisdom very closely. At the beginning of December when Newt Gingrich was just starting to peak, very few Intraders were willing to put their money on Romney. Now, the betters market is giving him over a 50 per cent chance to win the Caucuses.
These results actually show that InTrade is the best and quickest way to find out what the conventional wisdom is.
This chart seems to prove the contention that InTrade and political futures trading in general are not some great way of predicting the future, but of representing the collective media consensus.
By this measure, MItt Romney is also said to have an 80.2 per cent chance of winning the nomination altogether.
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