Warren Hogan is indisputably one of the titans of economic analysis in Australia.
And he’s worried. The negative growth in retail sales for August has added to a growing list of troubling signals about what’s happening with the consumption element of the Australian economy, which accounts for more than half of GDP.
Here’s the chart:
“We’ve got this declining trend accelerating,” Hogan said of the retail sales data. “If this is not ‘statistical’ — if this is not sampling error — then this is the sort of dynamic you’d see in an economy that is going into a hole.”
Hogan was previously chief economist at ANZ bank and recently finished a stint at federal Treasury where he was a principal advisor working on markets and macroeconomics. He’s the guest on this week’s edition of the Devils and Details podcast, and shares his views on the conditions in the domestic economy, what could happen next in China, the improving global outlook and the effectiveness (or lack of it) of unconventional monetary policy.
It’s a fascinating chat. You can find the show on iTunes, or listen in below.