It started as a gentlemen’s bet between our Henry Blodget and Zachery Kouwe of the New York Post. Now we’re taking it global. So jump on that keyboard and play SAI’s Microsoft-Yahoo Deal Price Game!
HOW TO PLAY
In the comments below, please enter your estimate of the final deal value at which Yahoo will agree to be taken over by Microsoft. To avoid confusion, this is:
- The value of Microsoft’s takeover per Yahoo share at the time the offer is accepted.
Note that the value of Microsoft’s current bid fluctuates with Microsoft’s stock price and is currently about $29 (down from $31 at the time of the offer). What we are looking for is your estimate of the value of Microsoft’s bid at the time Yahoo accepts the offer, not when the deal finally closes. Thus:
- If you think Yahoo will not agree to be acquired by Microsoft, bid “0”
- If you think Microsoft will raise its offer $3 from the current value (at the time of this writing) bid $32.
- If you think Yahoo will accept an offer of $35, bid “$35”.
We are big believers in crowd wisdom, and if enough smart folks play this game, we believe the average estimate will be better than the vast majority of the individual guesses. Yahoo’s current stock price, of course, is also a crowd-sourced estimate, but it includes a standard takeover risk and time-premium that likely amounts to a couple of dollars a share (e.g., If I agree to buy your company for $30, the stock will likely trade at $28 or so, on the chance that the deal will fall apart). What this game is about is estimating the value at which Microsoft and Yahoo will agree to married.
SAI READER CONSENSUS
The current consensus of the players–at this writing, Henry and Zachery–is displayed below. Scroll down the spreadsheet, and you’ll see how big a Microsoft price increase this suggests. Enter your own estimate below, and we’ll add it to the spreadsheet (feel free to remain anonymous, but also feel free to tell us who you are). May the best analyst win!
UPDATE: Yahoo has effectively countered Microsoft’s offer with $40 a share, so we won’t include bets higher than that in the spreadsheet. We’ll keep them on the site, though. We’ll also give extra credit for intelligent logic, so feel free to explain your bet.
NOW WATCH: Tech Insider videos
Business Insider Emails & Alerts
Site highlights each day to your inbox.