Piper's Munster: Oops, iPhone 3G Demand 'Better Than Expected', But 'Don't Overthink It' (AAPL)

Give Piper Jaffray Apple (AAPL) analyst Gene Munster a mulligan: This morning, Munster had the bad luck of issuing his first-weekend iPhone sales estimate (425,000 units) just a few hours before Apple released its actual sales milestone (1 million units). Munster just sent out a second note, explaining the discrepancy: Strong overseas sales and better-than-expected U.S. sales thanks to improvements Apple made activating iPhones to AT&T’s (T) network. Specifically, it looks as if Gene got his estimates by surveying shoppers in New York and Minneapolis, and may have overestimated how bad the activation problems were (probably because New Yorkers complain so often, and so loudly).

So is Munster jacking up his estimates for the rest of the September quarter? Nope.  “Don’t overthink it,” he says. While demand is strong, he thinks iPhone production will be constrained this quarter, limiting Apple from sky-high sales numbers.

Meanwhile, Apple is trading up 2% to $176.09.

Earlier: What Activation Problems? Apple Moves 1 Million 3G iPhones

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