Yesterday the June Philly Fed report came in very ugly, dropping to -16.6, implying a sharp worsening of conditions for manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve region.
According to Harris Private Bank’s Jack Ablin, there’s historically been a strong relationship between the Philly Fed employment sub-index and the following Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Ben White at Morning Money has consistently been tracking the relationship and Ablin’s predictions, and today he once again produces the chart. Based on yesterday’s number, the forthcoming jobs report may see a reading of just 43K net new jobs. Oof.