The Philadelphia Fed has released its monthly suite of state leading indicators, which project economic growth rates for each of the 50 U.S. states over the next six months, as illustrated in the map below.
46 states are expected to see growth in economic activity into the second quarter of 2014, while 4 are expected to register a decline in activity.
Those four states are Wyoming, Kentucky, Alabama, and Alaska. In contrast, South Carolina is the only state expected to grow more than 4.5% in the next six months.
The entire U.S., by comparison, is expected to grow 1.4% over that timeframe, according to the Philly Fed release.
Here’s the Philly Fed’s description of what goes into the projections: “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.”
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