Philly Fed Survey SMASHES Expectations


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.The Philly Fed Index survey just smashed expectations.Analysts had expected a decline of -9.4 in the survey, but instead we got +8.7.

New orders were also very strong.

The most important point is that things even in October are showing signs of life,confirming that things have gotten better since the August-September doldrums.

Here’s the full report:

Responses to October’s Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing
activity is showing signs of recovery, following several months of decline. The survey’s indicators for activity, shipments, and new orders recorded positive readings after two months in negative territory. The diffusion index of current activity increased to 8.7 in October from -17.5 in September.

The broadest indicator of future activity remained positive and showed marginal improvement over its reading last month. The future general activity index increased to 27.2 in October from 21.4 in September

Special Questions: Workforce Changes

  • The survey participants responded to special questions about changes in their workforce and the changing use of flexible workers over the past year.
  • 40-six per cent of the respondents to the special questions reported that they had increased their total workforce in the past year. 20-four per cent said they had decreased their workforce.
  • 70-four per cent of the firms indicated they used temporary or agency workers. 30-six per cent of these firms said that they have increased the total share of these workers over the past year.

labour Market

  • The labour market improved only slightly this month. Nearly 18 per cent of the firms reported an increase in employment, but 17 per cent reported a decrease. The current employment index remained positive but decreased 4 points from its reading last month.
  • However, the average workweek index increased notably from -13.7 to 3.1. However, the percentage of firms reporting a longer workweek (15 per cent) was only slightly greater than the percentage reporting a shorter one (12 per cent).


  • The majority of firms (69 per cent) reported steady prices for their own manufactured products in October. The percentage of firms reporting decreases in prices for their manufactured goods (15 per cent) was slightly higher than the percentage reporting price increases (12 per cent) this month.
  • Increasing costs were, on balance, slightly less widespread this month compared to last month. Nearly 31 per cent of firms reported paying higher prices for inputs this month, and 11 per cent reported lower prices.

This survey, which was started in 1968, gathers information on the manufacturing industry in the Third Federal Reserve District covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. The survey asks about the current pace of business in the participants’ plants and their future expectations of business.

To arrange an interview, contact Katherine Dibling,

the Bank’s senior media representative, at (215) 574-4119. The next Business Outlook Survey will be released at 10 a.m., Thursday, November 17, 2011, and will be made available on our website and over Businesswire.

External Link

The aggregate historical data series is also available on the Bank’s website.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank and savings and loan holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.

Original post: Coming out in 10 minutes: The Philly Fed Index and existing home sales.

On Philly Fed, analysts expect a reading of -9.4, up a bit from last month’s -17.5

In truth, these numbers are super-volatile, and are really hard to predict, so take the predictions with a grain of salt.

On Existing home sales, analysts expect 4.91 million annualized down slightly form the 5.03 million annualized rate last month.

Both numbers come out at 10.

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