Interesting nugget here from yesterday’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey.
The percentage of companies reporting seeing a decrease in sales broke over 30%, and historically everytime that’s happened, a new recession has followed closely thereafter (there is one exception, when the tech bubble saved everything — bubbles can do that).
The chart is a bit hard to read, but the blue line represents companies reporting decreasing orders, and the orange line in the middle is 30, which you can see the blue line just broke above.
In the past, this has always come just before the shaded areas (recessions).
The green line is the ISM — there’s a good chance we’lls ee more of that.