UPDATE: The Philly Fed’s Business Outlook Survey is out.
It was a monster beat. The index rose to 8.1 from last month’s -10.7 reading, far in excess of estimates of a -3.0 print.
Below is a table breaking down the change in each sub-component of the index:
Photo: Philadelphia Fed
Key text from the release below:
Indicators Suggest a Pickup at Year‐End
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from a reading of ‐10.7 in November to 8.1 this month. This is the highest reading since April and is slightly above the reading before the post‐storm decline in November (see Chart). The demand for manufactured goods picked up: the new orders index increased 15 points, from ‐4.6 in November to 10.7 this month.
The current shipments index also improved notably, rising by 25 points.
labour market conditions at the reporting firms improved marginally this month. The current employment index, at 3.6, registered its first positive reading in six months. The percentage of firms reporting increases in employment (20 per cent) narrowly exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (16 per cent). Firms also indicated an increase in the average workweek compared to last month.
ORIGINAL: Minutes away from the release of the Philadelphia Fed’s closely watched Business Outlook Survey at 10 AM ET.
Economists expect the index to rise to -3.0 after registering a -10.7 reading last month.
A positive print signals expansion, while a sub-zero reading suggests contraction.
We will have the release LIVE at 10 AM ET. Click here for updates >
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