PRINCETON, NJ — Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani would enter as credible players in the 2012 GOP presidential race, should they decide to run.
Perry is recognised by 55% of Republicans and has a Positive Intensity Score of 21, while Giuliani is recognised by 86% and has a Positive Intensity Score of 20.
Both Positive Intensity Scores are among the highest of any candidate or potential candidate Gallup measures.
Neither Perry nor Giuliani has made an official announcement about running for president, although both have indicated that they are seriously considering it. Perry, governor of Texas since 2000, told an Iowa newspaper that he felt “called” to run. Giuliani, who was the front-runner for the GOP nomination through much of 2007 before losing out to John McCain, has traveled frequently to New Hampshire in recent weeks.
Despite intense media speculation about his presidential plans, far fewer Republicans recognise Perry (55%) than recognise Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, and Ron Paul. Perry, however, is already known by as many Republicans nationally as announced candidate Tim Pawlenty, and has higher name recognition than several other candidates who have been hard at work campaigning in recent weeks, including Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, and Jon Huntsman.
Perry’s Positive Intensity Score of 21 ties Bachmann’s, and is slightly below Cain’s 25. Cain continues to generate the most enthusiasm of any candidate tested.
Despite the national exposure Giuliani received as mayor of New York during the difficult days after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, as well as during his 2008 GOP presidential bid, he falls short of having universal name ID among Republicans. His 86% recognition score is nine percentage points lower than that of Palin. Giuliani is, however, recognised by about as many Republicans as know Romney and Gingrich. Giuliani’s Positive Intensity Score of 20 puts him one point below Perry and Bachmann.
There has been little change in Gallup’s update for the two weeks ending July 17 in the positioning of the other potential GOP candidates Gallup measures. Palin’s and Romney’s Positive Intensity Scores are below those of Cain, Bachmann, Perry, and Giuliani, with Santorum’s and Pawlenty’s scores well below those. Huntsman’s position among Republicans has also not changed; he appears stuck with a relatively low recognition score of 41%, and his Positive Intensity Score of 2 is still among the lowest of any candidate or potential candidate tested.
This week’s Gallup tracking for the first time includes measures of two other announced candidates — Michigan Rep. Thad McCotter and Californian Fred Karger. Both have only 10% recognition among Republicans, and neither generates strong interest among that very small group of Republicans who do know them, with Positive Intensity Scores of 5 and -1, respectively.
In their inaugural appearance in Gallup’s weekly GOP candidate tracking, Perry and Giuliani have strongly positive images among Republicans nationwide, with Positive Intensity Scores in the top tier of all candidates and potential candidates Gallup measures. Both men generate slightly more intensely positive responses than Romney, and considerably more positive reactions than several other announced candidates who have been campaigning actively, including Pawlenty and Huntsman.
Perry does have relatively low name recognition among Republicans nationwide, roughly on par with where Bachmann was at the beginning of this year. Bachmann’s name recognition has increased significantly since then, however, in contrast to the situations of Pawlenty, Huntsman, Santorum, and Cain, who have not been able to move the needle on name recognition despite vigorous campaigning. It remains to be seen how quickly Perry’s name recognition will increase if he officially jumps into the race.
Giuliani does not have a name ID problem; he is as well-known as any candidate or potential candidate tested except for Palin. Giuliani also scores well on Gallup’s Positive Intensity measure, meaning that both he and Perry would be formidable factors in the race for the GOP nomination should they make the decision to run.
Overall, Cain, Bachmann, Perry, and Giuliani generate the most positive enthusiasm among Republicans nationwide who recognise them, with Palin and Romney trailing slightly behind.
Track every angle of the presidential race on Gallup.com’s Election 2012 page.
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