An associate professor at the Pepperdine School of Law created a calculator that can predict aspiring lawyers’ chances of passing the bar.
The professor, Robert Anderson, wanted to help law students choose where to take the exam.
“I suppose it’s considered bad manners to point out that the same student who would have a 30% chance of passing the California bar exam might have an 70% chance of passing the bar examination in another state,” he wrote in his personal blog WITTNESSETH.
His method considers LSAT score, law school class rank, law school ranking, and bar examination state.
Consider someone who scored a 150 on his or her LSAT, an average score, and graduated in the top half of their class — once again pretty average — from a top 50 law school. According to the calculator, he or she has an 89% of passing the bar in New York. But change one factor, law school rank to “not in the top 150,” his or her probability drops to 79%. Now check California — 55%.
The details clearly matter.
Anderson cautioned that this calculator is an “experimental” version. He’s hoping that law school administrations will send him better data so he can calibrate the calculator to make more accurate predictions.
Click here to check for yourself.
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