With just six weeks left in the regular season, the New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals are the heavy favourites to play in this year’s Super Bowl, according to the latest model by Nate Silver.
Using a rating system that accounts for margin of victory, home-field advantage, strength of schedule, and prior performance, and then simulating the rest of the season thousands of times, Silver determined the probability each team had of making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
The Patriots have a 24% chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season and the Cardinals at 19% are the only other team with a better than 9% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Just last week, the Patriots, Cardinals, and Broncos were all tied at 16%. The Broncos chances of winning the Super Bowl are now down to 9% after being at 21% just two weeks ago.
In all, just seven teams still have a realistic chance (at least 5%) of winning this year’s Super Bowl:
- New England Patriots, 24%
- Arizona Cardinals, 19%
- Denver Broncos, 9%
- Green Bay Packers, 8%
- Seattle Seahawks, 6%
- Philadelphia Eagles, 5%
- Kansas City Chiefs, 5%
The Indianapolis Colts (7% last week) fell off the list after their 42-20 loss to the Patriots. The Packers are new to the list after their second straight huge win as are the Chiefs who are now tied with the Broncos for first place in the AFC West.
At the other end, seven teams have pretty much been eliminated from playoff contention with less than a 1% chance of making the postseason. These teams include the Jets, Titans, Jaguars, Raiders, Redskins, Buccaneers, and Rams.
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