Seth Glickenhaus graduated from Harvard in 1934 and set up his own firm in 1938. His phone is now ringing off the hook. His take on the big difference between today and 1929-1930? The government hasn’t screwed up as badly. But that doesn’t mean we aren’t hosed.
WSJ: “You have one conspicuous difference between this and the 1929 break,” he said, using a common Wall Street euphemism to avoid saying “crash.”
“In the ’29 break you had [President] Hoover and [Treasury Secretary] Andrew Mellon contracting all the way. They believed that it wasn’t the role of the government to get involved. This time, the government is moving heaven and earth to reverse the cycle,” he said…
Although Mr. Glickenhaus thinks stocks have fallen so far that a short-term rebound is likely, the economy is so weak and the financial system so damaged that a “recession or even possible depression will last for at least five years,” he warned. “Eventually, we could get to 9500 easily on the Dow” Jones Industrial Average, a decline of about 8% from Friday’s finish of 10325.38.
“We’ve gotten soft in the United States, politically, economically and in every way. We’ve had so much prosperity that we can’t compete any more. Those days are gone, except in small companies. In things like autos — those days are gone,” said Mr. Glickenhaus, once a big Chrysler investor.