- Panelbase survey: Support for a pre-Brexit indyref has fallen from 43% last year to 27%.
- First Minister Nicola Sturgeon argued recently that a fresh independence referendum would be “highly likely.”
Support for a fresh independence referendum in Scotland before the Brexit vote has fallen away dramatically, according to a new poll.
A Panelbase survey of 1,020 voters for the Sunday Times found that support for an “indyref2” before Brexit — which is scheduled to happen by March 2019 — dropped from 43% last June to just 27% last week.
The poll also found that 51% of Scots oppose a second referendum within the next “few” years, although the poll found support for independence was slightly up on the 2014 result at 46%, with the “No” vote at 54%.
The poll appears to reflect the fact that Scots do not have an appetite for another turbulent referendum while Britain also pursues years of difficult exit negotiations from the EU.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has argued since the Brexit referendum in June 2016, that a fresh vote is “highly likely” before 2020, as Scotland voted to remain in the EU by a margin of 62% to 38%, and leaving the bloc amounts to “a material change in circumstances.”
However, she has already ruled out calling for a vote in 2017, and the prospect of one being held in the next few years appears to be increasingly distant.
The power to grant a referendum ultimately lies with Westminster, not Holyrood, and Prime Minister Theresa May has already ruled one out, saying there was “no need.”
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