STATS GURU: Manny Pacquiao's Shady Loss Was Almost Statistically Impossible

Ken Pomeroy, a sports stats god who specialises in college basketball, crunched the data and found that the likelihood of Manny Pacquiao losing to Timothy Bradley on Saturday night was nearly zero.Here’s how Pomeroy came to that conclusion:

He asked 18 reporters who were at the fight to give him their scorecards.

Based on their scorecards, Pomeroy came up with a formula to determine the percentage chance of a rational, random judge scoring a given round for Bradley.

There was only one round — the 10th — where there was greater than a 50% chance that a judge could give the round to Bradley.

Pomperoy combined the odds of a judge picking Bradley in each round to determine the overall likelihood of Bradley winning the fight. And here’s what he found:

• Pacquiao wins: 99.38%
• Draw: 0.59%

So basically: There was a 1-in-3300 chance that Pacquiao could have lost as a result of bad judging if you assume the judges are rational.

The problem: There are whispers in the boxing community that the judges were not rational — that they were paid off as part of a larger conspiracy.

Obviously this is impossible to prove. But the fact that the decision only had a 0.03% statistical chance of happening will give the conspiracy theorists some fuel.

Read Pomeroy’s entire analysis here >