Statistical Proof That The Seahawks-Packers Debacle Has Changed The Entire Course Of The NFL Season

clay matthews green bay packers nfl

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Football Outsiders — an awesome statistics-based football analysis site — ran their weekly playoff odds report today, and it’s clear that the Seahawks-Packers fiasco has had wide-ranging playoff implications for a bunch of teams.Here’s what happened to each teams’ odds after Monday Night:

  • The Seahawks saw their odds increase by 37.1 percentage points (from 6.2% last week to 43.4% this week). So they’re 5x more likely to make the playoffs than they were last week.
  • The Packers saw their odds decrease by 16.7 percentage points (from 82.4% last week to 65.7% this week). So they’re about 20% less likely to make the playoffs than they were last week.

Since it’s so early in the year, the playoff odds for most teams swing wildly from week to week. But still, this is a simple illustration of just how much damage that botched call did.

And it didn’t just affect these two teams.

The Bears saw their odds increase by a whopping 40.4 percentage points, and are now considered the favourites in the NFC Central North over the Packers.

The Cardinals, who are undefeated and just beat the Patriots and Eagles, saw their odds decrease by 1.2 percentage points after their NFC West rivals went to 2-1.

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