Why Nobody Should Be Surprised By Today's Selloff

Today should not be such a surprise. At Seasonal Odds we examined the average historical performance of the Dow Jones in the first trading week of February over the last 15 years.

The beginning of February is typically weak for the Dow, with the market declining 60% of the time over the period, losing an average of .53%. Also included are three of the oldest Dow components, XOM, PG, and GE—all begin the month negatively, with PG and GE declining almost 70% and 75% of the time, respectively.

dow jones feb

Photo: Seasonal Odds

Seasonal Odds is a live-updating stock market Almanac and real-time back-testing engine developed at Harvard and MIT. It was created by Daniel Nadler (PhD Candidate, Harvard) and Pete Kruskall (S.B. and M.Eng., MIT).

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