It’s going to be a little while before the next jobs report, which is still two weeks away.
But people are still getting excited about the possibility of a big number.
Ben White at POLITICO’s Morning Money leads off with this today:
Harris Private Bank’s Jack Ablin, who nailed the October jobs report in this space, emailed M.M. to point out that the Philly Fed employment index-which hit 12 yesterday as the workweek jumped to a seven-month high- suggests the November jobs number could pop to a point that alters the political conversation. This seems even more likely with weekly jobless claims finally staying below 400K: “Check out the attached. If the Philly Fed maintains its track record, the November jobs report will show more than 200,000 new payroll jobs. That would be enough to draw investors’ attention away from the eurozone.” Here is the chart showing the tight correlation between the Philly Fed index and non-farm payrolls: http://politi.co/uZLnUp
We’ve been talking a lot about the strong initial claims data, which continues to grind lower.
Here’s Nomura on the same subject, the nexus between initial claims and Non-Farm Payrolls:
Initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 in the week ending 12 November, the same week the Bureau of labour Statistics (BLS) conducts its payroll survey for the month of November. Claims are averaging 391,000 to date in November compared with 405,000 in October, which will likely lead to loftier expectations for job growth in November. However, we offer a caveat that the claims data do not always provide predictive value for monthly payrolls. For example, claims were lower in October compared with September yet job growth was slower in October (+80k vs. +158k). Nevertheless, in the same week, the 4-week moving average for jobless claims moved down to 396,750, the lowest level since the week ending 9 April, and the downward trend in jobless claims has become more pronounced since mid-October. This is certainly suggestive of a labour market that continued to make headway in November.
Anyway, two weeks is a long-time to wait until the number, but already optimism is riding high.
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