Polls show UK Labour was leaking support before the Brexit referendum

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn arrives to speak in Parliament Square, where the Momentum campaign group are holding a Dominic Lipinski / PA Wire/Press Association ImagesCorbyn has the support of the Labour Party membership but not MPs.

Back i
n April, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party was pulling ahead of the Conservatives in the polls
. The trend appeared to be moving gradually away from the Conservatives. Here are the headline figures for voting intention in a YouGov poll from the 12th April:

  • Lab: 34%
  • Con: 31%

The public’s trust rating for the main party leaders was also surprising, given the bashing Corbyn often gets in the media:

  • Corbyn: 28%
  • Cameron: 21%

However, as the referendum campaign heated up, support returned to the Conservative party. The latest polling data on voting intention — Opinium data from the 6th of June — shows it had almost reversed:

  • Labour: 30%
  • Conservatives: 34%

Here is how that looks over time:

These data show that Corbyn was once able to command election-winning support among the public as recently as two months ago. At the time, the political narrative was focused on the release of the Panama Papers, which described how David Cameron benefited from stock that was moved through a questionable offshore vehicle not subject to tax.

Of course, there has been no polling on this question since the referendum result, and the subsequent ongoing coup attempt against Corbyn in labour, which have turned UK politics on its head.

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