Here is what you need to know.
The IEA is forecasting a huge drop in oil supplies outside of OPEC. The International Energy Agency thinks the drop in oil prices will cause the biggest decline in oil supplies outside of OPEC in more than two decades. The IEA says oil supplies will fall by about 0.5 million barrels per day due to lower output in the US, Russia and North Sea. “US light tight oil, the driver of US growth, is forecast to shrink by 0.4 mb/d next year,” says the IEA.
Goldman Sachs thinks oil prices could be headed a lot lower. Global Commodities Research head Jeffrey Currie says although it’s not their base case, oil could fall to as low as $US20 per barrel. According to Currie’s latest note, “The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we now forecast this surplus to persist in 2016 on further OPEC production growth, resilient non-OPEC supply and slowing demand growth, with risks skewed to even weaker demand given China’s slowdown and its negative EM feedback loop.” For their most likely scenario, Goldman sees $US38 per barrel in a month and $US45 per barrel in 12 months. Currently, West Texas Intermediate crude oil is trading lower by 2.4% at 44.79 per barrel.
Russia’s central bank held policy steady. The Central Bank of Russia kept its key interest rate unchanged at 11.00%, as expected. Friday’s meeting marked the first time all year the central bank left rates unchanged as it looks to navigate the Russian economy out of recession. The central bank said, “Inflation and inflation expectations were showing a clear upward trend, impacted by the exchange rate dynamics.” It continued, “The depreciated ruble will continue to put pressure on prices in the next few months.” Going forward, the central bank believes the economy’s fate will be determined by oil prices and its ability to withstand external shocks. Russia’s ruble is is weaker by 0.6% at 68.0955.
The Bank of Korea kept policy on hold. South Korea’s central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 1.50%, as expected. The central bank noted, “although the recovery in domestic demand activities such as consumption and investment has continued, the trend of declining exports has persisted while the improvement in economic agents’ sentiments has been inadequate.” South Korea’s won ended stronger by 0.8% at 1184.46 per dollar.
New loans in China slowed. Chinese banks loaned 809.6 billion yuan in August, missing the 850 billion yuan that economists were anticipating. The number was well shy of the 1.48 trillion yuan that was loaned during the prior month. The China’s M2 money supply increased 13.3% versus the prior year, slightly outpacing estimates. China’s yuan ended little changed at 6.3749 per dollar.
General Electric might relocate. GE is considering moving its headquarters out of Connecticut, its home for more than 40 years, due to an “inhospitable clime for business,” according to the Wall Street Journal. The company is reportedly considering bids from Georgia and New York, as well as other states, who not only give tax advantages but also align with GE’s political needs. The WSJ says bids from Cincinnati and Dallas have been ruled out because of their states’ refusal to reauthorize the Ex-Im Bank.
John Paulson had a bad August. John Paulson’s flagship fund, Paulson Partners lost 4.2% in August, dropping its year-to-date gain to 6.5%. The volatile month produced a loss of 4.9% for the Paulson Advantage Fund, which is now down 3.6% so far this year. According to Reuters, Paulson’s bets on healthcare names such as Shire and Valeant are at least partially responsible for the bad month.
Stocks around the world are weaker. Australia’s ASX (-0.5%) paced the overnight losses while Spain’s IBEX (-1.0%) leads the decline in Europe. S&P 500 futures are down 9.50 points at 1930.25.
US economic data flows. PPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. ET while University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is released at 10 a.m. ET and the Treasury budget crosses the wires at 2 p.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is down 3 basis points at 2.19%.
Earnings reports are light. Kroger and Mattress Firm report ahead of the opening bell.
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