Here is what you need to know.
America votes. The first ballots have been cast in New Hampshire and an early count shows Donald Trump ahead 32 to 25. Voting across America will take place throughout the day before polls begin closing at 6 p.m. ET in Indiana and Kentucky.
2 of the 3 most likely election scenarios could cause a stock market sell off. In a note sent out to clients, Nomura’s Lewis Alexander and the rest of the firm’s economists said a Clinton victory and Republican control of the House would be a “non-event” while a Trump victory and a Republican sweep or a Clinton victory and a Democratic sweep could cause stocks to tumble by as much as 5%.
The Mexican peso is slipping. The currency has been used as a proxy to gauge Donald Trump’s prospects of winning the election because of his tough talk on Mexico. The thought being a Trump victory would be bad news for Mexico, causing a weaker peso. Currently, the peso is down 0.2% at 18.6289 per dollar.
The Mexican peso isn’t the only currency that’s being impacted by Trump. “Since October, USD/JPY and share prices have risen when polls suggest a Clinton win is more likely and fallen when support for Trump rebounds,” Taisuke Tanaka, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note to clients. Currently, the yen is weaker by 0.2% at 104.71 per dollar.
China’s trade surplus grew less than expected. Exports fell 3.2% year-over-year while imports dipped 1.4%, making for a trade surplus of 325 billion yuan ($49.06 billion). That was below the 366.6 billion yuan ($51.7 billion) surplus that economists were expecting, according to Bloomberg.
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Investors who stay the course regardless of who wins will benefit most in the long run. Read more here.
The Turkish lira hit a record low. The currency tumbled to a record low 3.1853 per dollar after Turkey’s industrial production figure came in at down 3.1% year-over-year versus expectations of up 2.5%. The lira has recouped some of its losses and is weaker by 0.2% at 3.1725 per dollar.
Stock markets around the world trade mixed. India’s Sensex (+0.7%) led the way in Asia and Britain’s FTSE (+0.1%) clings to gains in Europe. The S&P 500 is looking to open lower by about 0.3% near 2,126.
Earnings reports continue to flow. CVS Heath, DR Horton, SeaWorld Entertainment, and Valeant Pharmaceuticals are among the names reporting ahead of the opening bell.
US economic data is light. JOLTs Job Openings will cross the wires at 8 a.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is down 1 basis point at 1.82%.
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