Good morning. Here’s what you need to know.
Terror in Paris. Late Friday, 129 people were killed following a series of terrorist attacks in Paris. Many more were injured. And suspects remain at large. The terrorist group ISIS, also known as the Islamic State, has claimed responsibility.
Markets are doing much. European markets are mixed with Britain’s FTSE 100 down 0.9%, Germany’s DAX up 0.3%, and Spain’s IBEX flat. French markets opened as usual, and currently the CAC 40 is down 1.0% for the day. Asian markets closed mostly lower with Japan’s Nikkei down 1.0% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 1.7%. US futures are modestly higher with Dow futures up 27 points and S&P futures up 5 points.
How do markets react to terror. Historically, major geopolitical events like terrorist attacks have had muted long-term effects on the market. Ritholtz Wealth Management’s Josh Brown reviews some of the worst ones that occurred in the past century and notes that stocks often end flat to higher within days or just a few months. Crossing Wall Street’s Eddy Elfenbein went into this in depth two years ago. Warren Buffett wrote about it in the New York Times seven years ago. In the short-run, the impacts will vary depending on sectors. Goldman Sachs’ Francesco Garzarelli told clients that activity in the French retail sector could be hurt in the near-term, while government spending is likely to increase toward security and military expenditures.
Why markets don’t react more negatively. Brean Capital’s Peter Tchir offered a thoughtful take on Sunday: “In spite of many doomy predictions surrounding past events, the resilience of the people has won out over terror. People have not given up in the past. People do not huddle up cowering in their homes. They get out and go about their business and defy the people who perpetrated such acts. If the security forces can do their job I would not bet against the people. If there is not another attack in the immediate aftermath, then I would expect the people to once again manage to overcome the attack. Human nature is full of struggle against oppression and will hopefully prevail again.”
Eurozone inflation is still low. Consumer prices climbed by just 0.1% in October, which was up from the 0.0% in September and better than economists’ expectations for 0.0%. “Inflation pressures in the Eurozone remains weak, but the upside surprise in today’s report is consistent with our expectation that inflation will rise faster than the market and the ECB expects in coming months,” Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Claus Vistesen said. “These data won’t prevent the ECB from adding monetary stimulus next month, but if the trend continues, it could make the doves’ job more difficult next year.”
Japan enters recession. Japan just booked two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. GDP contracted at an annualized pace of 0.8% in Q3 following a 0.7% pace of contraction in Q2.
IMF recommends China’s renminbi be added to the SDR. On Friday, IMF head Christine Lagard said China’s currency “meets the requirements to be a ‘freely usable’ currency,” as IMF experts recommended that it be included in he Fund’s special drawing rights (SDR) basket of currencies. “This means there is a high chance that the IMF’s Executive Board will formally announce the RMB being included at its next meeting on 30 November,” HSBC’s Paul Mackel said. “Formal inclusion will not happen until 1 October 2016.”
Marriott is buying Starwood. Marriott International is acquiring Starwood Hotels & Resorts, creating the world’s largest hotel company. The deal is valued at $US12.2 billion, consisting of $US11.9 billion worth of Marriott stock and $US340 million in cash. For each share of stock, Starwood investors will receive $US2.00 in cash and 0.92 shares of Marriott, with Marriott priced at $US72.08 per share. Starwood (HOT) closed Friday at $US75.00. Combined, the company will be able to offer 1.1 million rooms in over 5,500 hotels across over 100 countries.
Credit card spending in China is strong. “Global payment operator MasterCard Inc sees double-digit annual growth in credit card transaction volumes in China, lifted by the booming e-commerce industry in the world’s second-largest economy, a senior executive told Reuters on Monday,” Reuters’ Eveline Danubrata reported. “China’s plan to open up its domestic transactions market to foreign companies such as MasterCard would be a ‘game-changer,’ Ling Hai, co-president for Asia Pacific, said in an interview on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.”
Not much data on the calendar. The only notable economic report on deck is the Empire Fed Manufacturing report, which will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists estimate the regional activity index improved to -6.35 in November from -11.36. Read BI’s complete preview of all of this week’s data in the Monday Scouting Report.
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