Here is what you need to know.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak in front of the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia. Traders will be watching for any clues as to how last Friday’s jobs report and the upcoming Brexit vote could impact the Fed’s decision on rate hikes. The speech will begin at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Fed rate hike odds have been pushed way back. Friday’s disappointing jobs report has pushed back market expectations of a Fed rate hike. Ahead of the report, the market was pricing in a 22% chance the Fed’s next hike would happen in June and a 54.8% chance it would happen in July. Now the market sees just a 4% chance of a June rate hike and a 58.5% chance the next hike won’t happen until December.
The “Leave” campaign continues to gain momentum. Two new polls show the “Leave” vote out in front for Britain’s June 23 EU referendum. A YouGov poll for Good Morning Britain shows “Leave” at 45% and “Remain” at 41%. Additionally, a TNS Poll reported by Reuters shows “Leave” at 43% and “Remain” at 41%. The news has pushed the British pound to its lowest level in three weeks, down 0.8% at 1.4402.
Switzerland rejected guaranteed basic income. Reuters reports, early projections showed a resounding 78% voted against the initiative that would have guaranteed a monthly income of 2,500 Swiss francs ($2,563) per adult and 625 francs per child under 18. Daniel Haeni, a cafe owner who led the initiative, told Swiss broadcast SRF, “As a businessman I am a realist and had reckoned with 15 per cent support, now it looks like more than 20 per cent or maybe even 25 per cent. I find that fabulous and sensational.” The Swiss franc is stronger by 0.1% at .9752 per dollar.
China’s unemployment rate might be a lot higher than it says. A new report from Fathom Consulting, cited by Bloomberg, shows China’s unemployment rate has tripled since 2012. Fathom says the jobless rate in China is really 12.9% versus the around 4% that is reported by Beijing. “China has a substantial hidden unemployment problem, in our view, and that explains why the authorities have come under so much pressure to re-start the old growth engines,” the report said.
German factory orders missed big. German factory orders fell 2% in April, missing the 0.5% decline that was expected. Orders from outside the eurozone tumbled 8.3% while those from inside the eurozone climbed 2.5%. According to Deutsche Welle, April’s reading marked the biggest monthly decline since July 2015. The euro is down 0.3% at 1.1334.
David Rosenberg warns the US economy is looking like its headed for recession. In an op-ed for Business Insider, Gluskin Sheff’s market strategist warned private sector temp jobs have fallen in four of the past five months, and that type of weakness has been a precursor to US recessions. Rosenberg says the US economy is seeing parallels to November 1969, May 1974, December 1979, October 1989, November 2000, and May 2007, and that the recessions that followed those periods averaged five months in duration. Rosenberg did note a few positives, saying the median duration of unemployment is at its lowest level of the year, long-term unemployment fell, and that millennial employment gained.
Lots of millennials want to work at Goldman Sachs. The investment bank received more than 250,000 applications for summer jobs, according to the Financial Times. A deeper look at the numbers shows 223,849 undergraduates applied for summer jobs and new analyst positions in 2016, a 46% increase from 2012 applications. Additionally, applications from those studying or completing their MBAs climbed 15% to 30,542. By comparison, Morgan Stanley receives about 8,000 applications per year, the FT says.
Stock markets around the world are mixed. Britain’s FTSE (+0.9%) leads in Europe after Japan’s Nikkei (+0.4%) lagged in Asia. S&P 500 futures are up 1.25 points at 2099.00.
Earnings reports trickle out. Casey’s General and United Natural Foods are among the names reporting after markets close.