Good morning! Here’s what you need to know:
And Now We Get To The Fun Part Of The Week: It’s jobs week in America, and things kick off at 8:15 a.m. ET with the ADP employment report, which serves as a preview of Friday’s official report from the BLS. Economists estimate private payrolls increased by 210,000 in May. “ADP has been an accurate gauge of BLS private jobs over the last three months, with a mean absolute miss of just 10K,” noted Credit Suisse economists. “Over the last twelve months (perhaps a truer measure of performance), the mean absolute miss is 40K.”
The State Of America’s Services Industry: At 9:45 a.m., we’ll get Markit’s Services PMI report. Economists estimate this activity index increased to 58.2 in May from 55.0 in April. “With decisive shifts in output and new business indicated during May, the survey should help alleviate concerns that the first quarter slowdown reflected underlying sluggishness in the US economy,” said Markit’s Tim Moore in the preliminary report.
ISM Non-Manufacturing: The ISM services report not only gives us a snapshot of the state of the U.S. services industry. It also serves as an important preview of Friday’s jobs report. Economists estimate this services index climbed to 55.5 in May from 55.2 in April. “The ISM non-manufacturing index likely picked up further in May, reinforcing the notion that the slowdown witnessed from December to February was weather related,” said Citi’s Peter D’Antonio.
Markets Aren’t Doing Much: The global stock markets are just a bit lower ahead of the U.S. economic data dump. Dow futures are down 10 points and S&P 500 futures are down 2 points. In Europe, Britain’s FTSE is down 0.2%, France’s CAC 40 is down 0.1%, and Germany’s DAX is down 0.1%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei climbed 0.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.6%.
Notes On The Fed: “Federal Reserve officials are starting to wonder whether a tranquility that has descended on financial markets is a sign that investors have become unafraid of the type of risk that could lead to bubbles and volatility,” reports WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath.
Notes From The Fed: The Fed will publish its Beige Book — a collection of economic anecdotes — at 2:00 p.m. ET. From Credit Suisse: “Markets will be looking … for signs of a rebound in economic activity from the winter contraction (embodied in the -1.0% real Q1 GDP print). The tone of the previous Beige Book, released on April 16, was generally positive, providing anecdotal support for the contention that growth is picking up. But the re- acceleration in business activity through early April had been described as only ‘modest or moderate.’ It would be a positive sign if the word ‘modest’ were dropped from the opening summary in Wednesday’s report.”
Europe’s Been Sluggish: According to the final official estimate, Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% in Q1, down from 0.3% in Q4 2013. “The final GDP data confirm that the eurozone had an overall sluggish start to the year,” said Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Claus Vistesen. “The contribution of domestic demand components was weak and largely unchanged relative to the last three quarters, with only government consumption contributing slightly more.”
…And Things Are Barely Picking Up: Markit’s Eurozone Composite PMI slipped to 53.5 in May from 54.0 in April. While any reading above 50 signals growth, the decline signals deceleration. “Although the euro zone is enjoying its best performance for three years, this is an uneven, stuttering and lackluster recovery,” said Markit’s Chris Williamson.
The UK’s In Great Shape: Markit’s UK Services PMI registered at 58.6 in May, just a slightly down from 58.6 in April. “The UK economy continued to boom in May, in what is the best spell of growth since 2007,” said Markit’s Williamson. “The buoyant services PMI follows similar upbeat manufacturing and construction reports, which collectively suggest that the economy is on course to grow by 0.8% again in the second quarter. That would push the economy above its pre-crisis peak.”
GM’s Mary Barra Might Be In The Clear: From the NY Times’ Bill Vlasic: “G.M. will surely face sceptics of its in-house inquiry into the recall crisis. But now G.M. officials increasingly believe that Ms. Barra will be cleared of wrongdoing in the recall crisis after a three-month investigation by Anton R. Valukas, the former United States attorney … Company officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Ms. Barra, who has been briefed on the investigation’s progress, cleared a critical hurdle last month when the nation’s auto safety agency imposed a $US35 million fine on G.M. for failing to report the defect in a timely manner.”
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