Here is what you need to know.
Wednesday’s a Fed day. Markets see a 0% chance of a Fed rate hike as a result of the disappointing May jobs report and the upcoming Brexit vote. Traders will be paying careful attention to Fed’s statement, but will also take a close look at the dot plot and FOMC projections, which are all due out at 2p.m. ET. Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference will begin at 2:30 p.m. ET.
New loans in China surged. Chinese banks lent out 985.5 billion yuan ($149.56 billion) worth of new loans in May, out pacing the 750 billion yuan that was expected. The big number comes as Beijing tries to remain accommodative amid the continued slowdown of the Chinese economy. “Bank lending beat expectations but the drop in total social financing shows regulators are trying to push for deleveraging,” Nie Wen, an economist at Hwabao Trust in Shanghai, told Reuters.
MSCI won’t include China’s A shares in its Emerging Markets Index. The index includes stocks from emerging markets all over the world that are deemed stable enough for investors, and China believed its inclusion was a near certainty. However, Remy Briand, global head of research at MSCI, said China has made progress in “addressing the remaining accessibility issues,” but still has work to do. China’s A shares will have another chance at inclusion in 2017.
UK unemployment fell to an almost 11-year low. According to Office for National Statistics data, the UK’s unemployment rate fell to 5% in April, its lowest level in more than 10 years. Additionally, the percentage of employed people climbed to 74.2%, matching the highest reading since record keeping began in 1971. And the good news didn’t stop there, wages climbed 2.3%, beating out the 2.0% gain that was expected. The British pound is higher by 0.6% at 1.4195.
California is the 6th largest economy in the world. California’s economy expanded at a 5.7% year-over-year rate in 2015, trailing only Oregon (+5.9%) as the fastest growing state. According to the Sacramento Bee, citing Bureau of Economic Analysis data, California’s economic output totaled $2.46 trillion. California’s 2016 growth moved it ahead of both France and Brazil, making it the 6th largest economy in the world.
Jeff Gundlach says we’re in for a rocky summer. Following Tuesday’s closing bell, bond guru Jeff Gundlach gave his latest presentation on markets and the economy. Gundlach said negative interest rates are having the opposite effect of what’s intended, and that interest rates are going to remain low. Additionally, Gundlach believes a summer sell off is coming, and that Donald Trump could win the election.
Morgan Stanley has a new revenue target for its FICC unit. Speaking at Morgan Stanley’s US Financials Conference in New York, CEO James Gorman said his firm is hoping to bring in $1 billion of revenue per quarter from its fixed income, currencies and commodities trading unit, Reuters reports. Gorman said the unit is seeing growing revenue from its bond trading business despite reducing the headcount by about 25% last year.
Stock markets everywhere are higher. Spain’s IBEX (+2.0%) leads in Europe after China’s Shanghai Composite (+1.6%) paced the advance in Asia. S&P 500 futures are up 4.75 points at 2079.25.
Earnings reports trickle out. Ctrip and Jabil Circuit will report after markets close.
US economic data is heavy. PPI and Empire manufacturing will cross the wires at 8:30 a.m ET. Then, industrial production and capacity utilization will be released at 9:15 a.m. ET before crude oil inventories are announced at 10:30 a.m. ET. Last but not least, net long-term TIC flows are due out at 4 p.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is up two basis points at 1.63%.