Good morning! Here’s what you need to know:
The Calm Before The Storm. Markets are up around the world ahead of a busy day of economic reports, earnings announcements, and one hedge fund manager’s presentation. In Europe, Britain’s FTSE is up 0.8%, France’s CAC 40 is up 0.9%, and Germany’s DAX is up 0.9%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed up 0.8% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed up 1.7%. U.S. futures are pointing up with Dow futures up 50 points and S&P futures are up 5.4 points.
The Presentation Of A Lifetime. At 9:15 a.m. ET, Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman will give what he has called “the most important presentation” of his career. “You’re going to learn why Herbalife is going to collapse. And that’s a pretty strong statement. But this is the largest fraud — public fraud in terms of scale, of countries involved, harm to people,” he said on CNBC Monday. Ackman has been shorting the multi-level marketing company, betting that its stock price would go to $US0.
A Crucial Inflation Update. Today’s 8:30 a.m. consumer price index report will be one of the more anticipated inflation reports in recent months and years. Economists estimate CPI climbed by 0.3% month-over-month in June and 2.1% year-over-year. Excluding food and energy, prices are estimated to have risen 0.2% and 2.0%, respectively. “Higher energy prices should boost headline CPI,” said Credit Suisse economists. “Unadjusted gasoline prices moved up in June, and seasonal factors expect a decline … Recent CPIs suggest core is normalizing from a period of unusual weakness. Goods prices have stabilised, and the more ‘persistent’ segment of inflation (especially shelter) seems to have turned up. Labour costs remain subdued, however, so any pickup should be gradual.”
Home Sales Update. At 10:00 a.m., we’ll get the June existing home sales report. Economists estimate sales climbed 2.0% to an annualized rate 4.99 million. “Pending home sales surged 6.1% in May, which suggests improvement in closed contracts in subsequent months,” said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists. “Moreover, inventory has picked up, even controlling for the typical seasonal patterns, which should allow for greater transactions. The inventory figures are worth monitoring, as months supply has already reached 5.6 months.”
Here Comes Apple. Apple reports is Q2 earnings after the closing bell. “Truth be told, this is the most boring of Apple’s quarterly reports,” said Business Insider’s Jay Yarow. “But, analysts have fallen in love with Apple all over again, so we’ll see if Apple breaks their hearts.”
Netflix Comes Right In Line. Netflix reported Q2 revenue and earnings that came right in line with expectations. Management noted that a recent rate hike had “minimal impact” on membership. “Fifteen years after launching our subscription service, we have over fifty million members enjoying Netflix in over 40 countries,” said management. “As we gain new members, we are investing to further improve our content and member experience, and to expand the global availability of our service.”
Chipotle Smokes Expectations. Chipotle Mexican Grill crushed Q2 earnings expectations as comparable store sales surged 17.3% during the quarter. Analysts were looking for 10.5% growth. “As more of Chipotle’s markets are touched with menu price increases this quarter, the company is teed up for at least another two quarter[s] of strong earnings growth that could materially surpass consensus (the amount of unknown as consensus estimates will climb following this report),” Brian Sozzi, the CEO of Belus Capital Advisors, said in an email.
What’s That Mean For McDonald’s? McDonald’s announces it’s Q2 financial results before the opening bell. Analysts are expecting the company to report EPS of $US1.44 on revenue of $US7.29 billion. Global comparable store sales are expected to have climbed by 0.8% driven by strength in the Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa.
House Price Update. At 9:00 a.m., the FHFA will release its May report on U.S. home prices. Economists estimate prices increased by 0.2% in May. “We look for the FHFA Home Price Index to remain unchanged in May, consistent with the behaviour of other home price indices during the same period,” said Barclays economists.
Along The Mid-Atlantic Coast. The Richmond Fed manufacturing report will be published at 10:00 a.m. Economists estimate this regional activity index climbed to 5 in July from 3 in June. “The New York and Philadelphia Fed surveys already have been released for July,” said UBS’ Kevin Cummins. “Both suggested further improvement in the growth of manufacturing output.”
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