Good morning! Here’s what you need to know.
- Asian markets gained big today, led by the Nikkei, which climbed 3.3%. Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.2%. European markets were more uneven, with the FTSE off -0.1% and the DAX up 0.1%.
- At 8:30 am ET, we learn how many non-farm payrolls the U.S. economy added in July. The consensus is for 185,000, compared with 195,000 in June. The BLS will also announce new earnings data, and check in on the unemployment rate.
- Goldman Sachs predicts NFP will tick 200,000 based on three elements: recent strong manufacturing data, recent strong consumer confidence data, and the most recent ADP report, which showed a gain of 200,000. Deutsche Bank’s Joe LaVorgna is even more bullish, placing his bets on a gain of 225,000 based on the following: “Since last October, when Moody’s took over from Macroeconomic Advisors, the average forecast miss from the initially reported private payroll number and the initially reported ADP figure has been just +9k. The standard deviation has been +44k.”
- Toyota announced its Q2 net profit had nearly doubled to a record $US5.64 billion, thanks mostly to the falling value of the yen. The automaker also said it would likely pump out more than 10 million vehicles this year.
- The UK’s construction purchasing manager’s index (PMI) surged to 57 from 51 in July. It was the third-straight monthly gain for business activity. Residential construction increased at the fastest rate since June 2010, and new orders saw their biggest jump in more than a year.
- At 10 am, we’ll get new factory order data. Plus, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will deliver a speech about the economy in Boston at 12:15 am. Chevron, Viacom, Eaton Corp. and Church and Dwight will announce earnings today.
- AIG stocked surged after hours yesterday after the insurance giant announced its first dividend since getting bailed out by the government. The $US0.10 return comes on top of a share buyback of up to $US1 billion.
- The New York Times’ Annie Lowery reports the Obama Administration is interviewing three candidates to replace outgoing Fed Chair Ben Bernanke: Larry Summers, Janet Yellen, an Donald Kohn. But Lowery says the president is seems to be leaning toward on Summers: “…it is his reputation among economic policy staff members that might ultimately secure him Mr. Obama’s nod. ‘You can’t find a member of the economic team who is for anyone but Larry,’ said a person close to the administration who declined to talk on the record before Mr. Obama makes his decision. ‘That’s true at Treasury, that’s true at the White House. The reason is, Larry has been through this. Larry brings the right skills to bear here. ‘ ”
- Former Goldman Sachs trader Fabrice Tourre was convicted yesterday on six of seven counts related to defrauding clients in a subprime mortgage derivatives deal. He faces a fine and will have to return profits.
- Google has released a new smartphone, the Moto X, via its Motorola subsidiary. Our Steve Kovach found it sleek, uncluttered and liked the new features including voice-command, but he thinks no one will buy it because the market is too saturated.
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