Good morning and welcome to August. Here’s what you need to know.
1. Jobs Day. The consensus among analysts is for nonfarm payrolls to hit 230,000. Nomura sees it coming in a bit higher, at 255,000. “With the six-month moving average of payroll growth already at 231k in June, the largest since early 2006, incoming data on the labour market in July suggest that conditions continued to improve. We forecast that government employment, which has increased in four of the past five months, will rise by 5k in July, due to the improving fiscal balances of state and local governments. As such, we estimate that private payrolls rose by a net new 250k.” They also see a 0.1% decline in the unemployment rate to 6.0%.
2. Tesla Delivers. The electric automaker reported adjusted earnings and revenue that topped forecasts, and it says it’s still on track to deliver 35,000 vehicles in 2014, despite lowering its guidance for Q3 deliveries. The firm now predicts it will deliver 100,000 on an annualized basis in 2015. Barclays calls this a massive ramp-up but not unattainable: “While guiding to a below-consensus 3Q ’14 on deliveries and earnings, Tesla gave bullish guidance for 2014 and 2015 that should support the shares — guiding to a 4Q delivery rate of over 13,000 units and an exit rate of 100k units in 2015. The guidance provides us some insight into Tesla’s expectations for a quite steep delivery ramp-up over the coming years and into the Model 3 era.” Adjusted EPS was $US0.11 against $US0.04 forecast. Revenue came in at $US857.5 million, versus a consensus estimate for $US813 million.
3. Chinese Manufacturing Hits 18-Month High. HSBC China manufacturing PMI hit 51.7 in July, up from 50.7 in June. That missed expectations for a rise to 52 and was also lower than the flash reading of 52. But it’s still pretty good — anything above 50 indicates expansion. “The economy is improving sequentially and registered across-the-board improvement compared to June,” Hongbin Qu, HSBC chief economist for China, said in a press release.
4. Markets Tank. U.S. futures, along with stocks in Europe and Asia, were down across the board in advance of the jobs report. S&P500 futures were off 0.7%. London’s FTSE fell 1%; Frankfurt’s DAX 2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.9%. Japan’s Nikkei was off 0.6%. U.S. crude hit its lowest level since March, falling below $US98. U.S. yields on the 10-year climbed two basis points. “Investors have been looking for an excuse to sell,” Angus Gluskie, who helps oversee more than $US550 million at White Funds Management in Sydney, told Bloomberg. “We’ve got a range of convenient reasons for investors to take some money off the table. The geopolitical risks have been rising and data flow in the U.S. is suggesting that the Fed may have to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. The Argentine issue is another piece of adverse news flow.”
5. Eric Cantor Is Resigning. After losing a primary last month, the House Majority Leader now says he will leave office early, on Aug. 18, and is requesting a special election to replace him. “The Virginia Republican told the Richmond Times-Dispatch that he had called on Gov. Terry McAuliffe to set up a special election for his 7th congressional district seat so that his replacement could begin immediately after the election and not when the 114th Congress starts in January,” Politico reported.
6. Earnings. Burger King, Chevron, Church & Dwight, Clorox, and Procter & Gamble all report before the bell. SociétéGenerale earlier reported year-over-year profits growth of 7.8%, but shares were down 2% in Friday trading as revenue from equities climbed by only 3%, and net banking income fell 4%, the FT noted.
7. More Data.
- 8:30 a.m. Personal Income and Outlays. Personal income and consumer spending are both expected to have climbed 0.4%.
- 9:45 a.m. PMI Manufacturing Index. Consensus forecast is for a reading of 56. against 57.3 prior.
- 9:55 a.m. UMich/Reuters Consumer Sentiment. Consensus forecast is for a reading of 81.5 versus 81.3 prior.
- 10 a.m. ISM Manufacturing. Consensus forecast is for a reading of 56.0 against 55.3 prior.
- 10 a.m. Construction Spending. Consensus forecast is for a reading of 0.5% compared with 0.1% prior.
9. Cease-Fire Breaks Down. A proposed three-day cease-fire that began Friday collapsed in a matter of hours as fighting between Israel and forces in Gaza resumed. It wasn’t clear what triggered the break down.
10. French Phone Company In T-Mobile Bid. Iliad has upset presumed negotiations between Sprint and T-Mobile by launching its own $US15 billion cash bid for T-Mobile. From The Wall Street Journal: “Iliad appears to have seized an opening in Sprint and T-Mobile US’s failure to announce a deal yet, saying its deal likely wouldn’t encounter regulatory obstacles. Sprint has yet to disclose a formal offer for T-Mobile US. ‘The U.S. mobile market is large and attractive,’ Iliad said in confirming a report on its bid by The Wall Street Journal. ‘T-Mobile US has successfully established a disruptive position, which in many ways, is similar to the one Iliad has built in France,’ said Iliad, which is known for sparking a price war in the country’s mobile-telephone market.”
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