Whenever Victor Neiderhoffer speaks there are only two scenarios possible — either you don’t get it, or he doesn’t.
Yet it’s hard to ever know for sure which one it is, thus his genius.
Victor Neiderhoffer: Isn’t the quitting of golf by Tiger symptomatic of the redistribution scheme to the cronies that puts individual achievement and property rights on the lowest rung of the totem pole, and doesn’t this have predictive value for the market the next year?
He then dives into quantitative finance.
The average standard deviation of the market the last several years is 20 and the average mean absolute deviation is 14, and the average range is 19. The relation between the mean absolute deviation and standard deviation is consistent with the expected proportion of √(2/π) or about 4/5 for a normal distribution.
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